NORTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS THU 1/2/01 There have been strong Southerly winds and the freezing level this afternoon is up to about 700 metres. So the recent slab load has become increasingly dense due to warming and thicker due to new snow. The thickness of new slab is readily identifiable through probing and foot penetration. At the profile site the slab sheared cleanly and indicated fair snowpack stability. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK FRI 2/2/01 Continued warming with freezing level going to plateau elevation will see a critical period of snowpack instability and cornice weakness. Avalanches and cornice failure will occur. North aspects above 800 metres will be an area of concern due to the new slab instability. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Snow building in North aspect lee locations and along fence lines; scouring on the windward side. Little change on the plateau. ICING: A growth spurt may prevail if the warming lingers. COMMENT: The warming trend, duration and elevation, will be the key thing to watch through this forecast period. LOCHABER AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS THU 1/2/01 The snowpack is gradually consolidating at all levels, with a thin crust on the snow surface above 1000 metres. Areas of unstable snow are still present, greatest accumulations being in gullies and on slopes with a N, NE and E aspect above 1000 metres. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK FRI 2/2/01 A gradual thaw overnight will be replaced by slightly cooler, dry conditions on Friday. Wet snow surface instabilities will exist, mainly on steep slopes below 1000 metres. Above this altitude, unstable windslab will still be present, mainly on N, NE and E facing slopes and gullies. The avalanche hazard will be Considerable (Category 3). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: General cover remains above 550m. ICING: Freezing level rising above the summits overnight. COMMENT: Hazard of falling ice and rocks on steep ground. GLENCOE AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS THU 1/2/01 Rain at all levels has moistened the snowpack weakening deep layered soft slab that is lying on steep sheltered slopes with a NW through to E aspect and in all sheltered gullies. Avalanche debris was observed below North facing gullies. The avalanche hazard is High (Category 4). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK FRI 2/2/01 A degree of stabilisation of the snowpack will occur as dry and less mild conditions affect the area during the course of Friday. Instabilities will remain deep within the snowpack on the steepest North-West to East facing slopes and in steep sheltered gullies of many aspects. The avalanche hazard will be Considerable (Category 3 ) and avalanches are likely. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Snow cover above 500m. ICING: Ice on paths and rocks above 600m. COMMENT: Highest ridges and buttresses offer safest and best options for climbing conditions SOUTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS THU 1/2/01 Fresh windslab is building on W through to E aspects with greatest amounts in sheltered locations on NW to NE aspects. Surface layers continue to be weakly bonded with shear tests revealing buried surface hoar. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK FRI 2/2/01 Overnight there will be a rapid rise in the freezing level to above the summits. This increased loading of the snowpack will provide the trigger for avalanche activity. Aspects most affected will be W through to E, with NW to NE aspects in particular holding greatest amounts of fresh windslab. Care should be taken with any steeper sheltered location that holds deeper soft deposits. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4) and avalanches will occur. Cornices will become unstable. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Good cover above 700 metres. ICING: Subject to thaw conditions on Friday. COMMENT: Cornices will become unstable. CREAG MEAGAIDH AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS THU 1/2/01 Snow showers and drifting of existing snow on a fresh South- South-East wind has caused deep accumulations of unstable windslab to form on North-West through North-East to East aspects above 800 metres. Although a little milder today, the snowpack remains cold so there has been little consolidation. Cornices continue to grow over lee slopes. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK FRI 2/2/01 Overnight, a trace of fresh snow and drifting of existing deposits will continue to load windslab onto lee slopes of a North through North-East to South-East aspect above 950 metres. Temperatures will be milder than of late and some consolidation will occur at lower levels. The very tops of sheltered gullies and under cornices will be most affected. The avalanche hazard will remain Considerable (Category 3). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Main cover above 500 metres. Difficult trail breaking if off the beaten track. ICING: No visibility, but I presume all that lovely ice is still there, although it will remain buried in soft snow in many places. COMMENT: Freezing level hovering around the summits. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------