NORTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS FRI 8/2/02 A melt-freeze cycle at the summit did occur in the past 24 hours as well as continued strong Westerly winds with average of 55 mph and maximum gust of over 90 mph. The snowpack has been through two melt freeze cycles since the bulk of the storm snow. It has also been rained on. The stability is generally fair to good. Cornice build up has been light but their strength remains suspect. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK SAT 9/2/02 The first part of the next forecast period will be a thaw cycle until a freeze over the tops later on Saturday. Winds continue as before, strong Westerly flow. Rain will add to the density of the snowpack but will not significantly alter stability where the snowpack is over 1 metre thick. North and East aspects above 900 metres will continue to hold the zones of greatest loading. The avalanche hazard will be Considerable (Category 3). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Some lee pockets with 20-25 centimetre foot penetration and intrepid ski tourers attempting the plateau. ICING: Water dripping again. COMMENT: It looks a bit more like a winter wonderland. LOCHABER AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS FRI 8/2/02 It was another mild and windy day with rain at all levels. After slight cooling overnight, the snowpack is now thawing at all levels. On steep slope inclinations, unstable wet snow is still present on many aspects. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). Unstable cornices present above many N, NE and E aspects. AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK SAT 9/2/02 Rain overnight will be followed by cooler temperatures and snow showers during Saturday. The existing snowpack will begin to re-freeze and stabilise during Saturday. Strong Westerly winds will form fresh areas of windslab, although distribution will generally be restricted to the tops of NE, E and SE facing slopes and gullies. The avalanche hazard will be Moderate (Category 2). Elsewhere the snowpack will be generally stable. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Good general cover still remains above 800m. ICING: Freezing level lowering to around 700m on Saturday. COMMENT: Large areas of snow-ice forming on many aspects. GLENCOE AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS FRI 8/2/02 New snow last night followed by very mild conditions today, with prolonged heavy rain at all levels, gave some avalanche activity early this morning on East facing slopes above 1000m. The snowpack is now saturated and is disappearing fast at lower levels. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3) on steep slopes and gulleys threatened by weak cornices mainly with a North to East aspect above 900m. AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK SAT 9/2/02 Wet mild conditions will continue overnight. During Saturday cooler conditions will return with snow showers and Westerly gales. The existing snow cover will start to get firmer at higher levels. New snow and wind transportation will form weakly bonded windslab above 900m on slopes with a North-East to South-East aspect and in all gullies sheltered from the full force of the wind. Weak cornices will also start to form above these aspects. The avalanche hazard will be Considerable (Category 3) CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Above 850m and going fast! ICING: Thawing ice at highest levels only. COMMENT: Cooler conditions will start to improve climbing conditions on the higher routes. Windy! SOUTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS FRI 8/2/02 The freezing level is now above the summits leaving the majority of the snowpack soft and moist. In deeper deposits drier moderately to weakly bonded snow exists. These are to be found in sheltered locations on mainly N to E aspects above 900 metres. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK SAT 9/2/02 The freezing level will stay well above the summits overnight before lowering to about 1000 metres by morning. Snow showers and drifting will build fresh windslab in very sheltered locations on NE to SE aspects above 900 metres. Where these deposits acquire depth over firmer snow ice on steeper terrain stability will be poor. The avalanche hazard will be Considerable (Category 3). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Cover much improved with some ski touring now possible. ICING: Subject to severe thaw conditions tonight. COMMENT: Blizzard conditions at times tomorrow. CREAG MEAGAIDH AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS FRI 8/2/02 Initially terrain below 850 metres has become moderately bonded in continued thaw with only steep and convex terrain remaining suspect. However snowfall above 850 metres overnight on a westerly wind has continued to load pre-existing deep weakly bonded windslab deposits found on North through East to South aspects. Field tests produced an existing weak layer at 50-60 cm depth and fresh avalanche debris was noted on an Easterly aspect. As snow has again turned to heavy rain during the day wet snow instabilities are increasing. High (Category 4) avalanche hazard. AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK SAT 9/2/02 Heavy rain at all levels will continue through the night and wet snow instabilities will remain. Cornice collapse and the risk of wet snow avalanches from steep terrain of all aspects will be maintained until a colder severe gale force Westerly air stream moves in during the day. Fresh windslab deposits will begin to build on North-East through East to South-West aspects above 850 metres as rain turns to snow. The avalanche hazard will be Considerable (Category 3) with avalanches likely. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Main cover above 750 metres. ICING: Remaining poor in warm conditions. COMMENT: Large cornice remnants still present above North and East aspects, debris run outs are long! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------