NORTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 12/1/03 Morning showers developed into persistent rain over the tops this afternoon. The surface of the snowpack has the appropriate condition: rain soaked. However there is still dry sub-surface snow and the previously reported soft layer will survive for the forecast period under the near surface slab. Avalanche debris was noted in the nameless coire between Fiacaill Buttress and Coire an Lochan on a NNE aspect at 1100 metres. The avalanche hazard is High (Category 4). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 13/1/03 Moderate rain amounts are forecast with winds changing from Westerly to WSW. While percolation channels due to rain become established the snowpack stability will remain poor. Avalanches will occur on any aspect above 950 metres where the snowpack has the previously reported weak layer. Loose snow avalanches will occur on steeper ground with minimal cover. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: What little there is will go quickly in these conditions. ICING: Same as above comment. COMMENT: Exposed turf softening again. LOCHABER AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 12/1/03 Early snow has been replaced by rain at all levels during the day. Any new snow accumulations have gradually thawed in the warmer temperatures leaving a sparse and wet snowpack. The avalanche hazard is Low (Category 1). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 13/1/03 Wet and windy weather is expected overnight and during Monday with no new snow. Any remaining snow will continue to thaw at all levels. The avalanche hazard will be Low (Category 1). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Snow cover reducing in the thaw. ICING: Freezing level remaining above the summits. COMMENT: Hazard of falling ice and rocks on steep ground. GLENCOE AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 12/1/03 It was a milder wet day with a trace of fresh snow above 900m. The general snow cover is very thin and diminishing quickly with mild SW airflow. Some deeper areas of snow exist above 900m: these are mainly in sheltered corries and on the higher Northerly slopes as well as in deep gullies. However, there is not enough snow to create an avalanche hazard. The avalanche hazard is Low (Category 1). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 13/1/03 Gale force South-Westerly winds will bring heavy rain at all levels. This will strip most of the sparse snowpack leaving only patches of old snow. Wet snow instabilities will exist on steep slopes where accumulations of old snow are deep enough. The greatest accumulations of snow will be in sheltered locations but mainly on slopes with an N through to E aspect above 950m. The avalanche hazard will be Low (Category 1). There will be a danger of falling ice. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Snow above 900m. ICING: Freezing level becoming above 2000m. COMMENT: Heavy rain and mild SW airflow will leave very little snow. Storm gale force South-Westerly winds. The weather has been good! SOUTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 12/1/03 A freezing level of 1200 metres and rain have destabilised the already weakly bonded snowpack. Heavy surface layers are failing on the soft lower density deposits beneath. Sheltered locations on mainly NE through to SW aspects hold deeper deposits. An avalanche accident has occurred in Black Spout on Lochnagar at an approximate altitude of 1000 metres. The avalanche hazard is High (Category 4). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 13/1/03 Severe thaw conditions will arrive overnight with a freezing level of 2400 metres by tomorrow. All recent deposits will be destabilised by the additional load created by rain soaked surface layers. Most aspects will be affected but deeper deposits tend to exist on NE through to SW aspects. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4). Avalanches will occur and cornices will be prone to collapse. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION:Significant reduction expected. ICING: Prone to collapse. COMMENT: Limited safe options available tomorrow. CREAG MEAGAIDH AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 12/1/03 Overnight, a band of snow driven on a gale force Westerly wind deposited windslab into hollows on North-East to South-East aspects above 800 metres. This snow then rapidly turned to rain as the freezing level rose above the summits. Now, isolated patches of moderately bonded wet slab can be found in hollows and the tops of gullies on the above mentioned aspects. The avalanche hazard is Moderate (Category 2). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 13/1/03 The freezing level will remain well above the summits with driving rain on a severe gale force Westerly wind. These conditions will have a devastating effect on what little snow cover we had left. Only isolated patches of well-bonded old snow will survive in some Northerly gullies. Although the avalanche hazard will be Low (Category 1) there will be a risk of rock and ice fall from any steep ground. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Rapidly disappearing at all levels. ICING: Thawing rapidly. Watch out for collapsing ice and rockfall from any steep ground. COMMENT: Driving rain, wet snow and we're soaked to the skin. That's more like the January we know and love! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------