NORTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS THU 23/1/03 Southerly winds, low temperatures and significant snow transport contributed to a build-up on North aspects and slow settlement rates of the recent snow. The wind shift from North- East to Southerly has increased zones with instability. Field tests showed wide variability in stability on both North and South aspects. On the same aspect there are some areas with good stability and some with poor. The instability is very site specific. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK FRI 24/1/03 Rain will contribute to a period of very poor stability and avalanches will occur. The areas of concern are very site specific and on all aspects above 1000 metres where the snowpack includes a firm slab on the previously reported soft layer below. The tops of scarp slopes have highly variable distribution, some with significant new load others scoured or bare. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Much improved on the plateau, skiable zones but still much rock exposed. ICING: Variable on Escalator; some very good, some thin and hollow. COMMENT: Timing of the rain will determine avalanche activity. LOCHABER AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS THU 23/1/03 Areas of hard and soft slab are present on many sheltered aspects. Accumulations are localised and mainly on scarp slopes and around the base of crags. Strong S to SW winds during Thursday are starting to redistribute snow to sheltered NW and N aspects, but distribution of unstable snow still remains variable. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK FRI 24/1/03 Rain and milder temperatures moving into the forecast area will see a period of high wet snow instability occur overnight and early on Friday. Localised wet snow deposits will be present on many aspects, with accumulations mainly on scarp slopes, gullies and crag aprons. Wet snow avalanches are likely. The avalanche hazard will be Considerable (Category 3). Cornices will be prone to collapse. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Snow above 600m on Thursday. ICING: Freezing above the tops by Friday COMMENT: Hazard of falling rocks and ice in the thaw. Back to wearing wellies tomorrow! GLENCOE AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS THU 23/1/03 A light general cover of snow is lying above 750 metres much of this has undergone a melt-freeze cycle and is stable. Variable winds overnight and today have formed areas of windslab in sheltered locations. Greatest accumulations are to be found around the tops of the higher sheltered gullies and on slopes with a West to North-East aspect mainly above 950 metres. Stability of this slab is moderate on steeper slopes and where old snow underlies. The avalanche hazard is Moderate (Category 2). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK FRI 24/1/03 Mild conditions with heavy rain at all levels overnight will give a period of instability as the snow cover becomes saturated. By morning the remaining snowpack will be soft and moist as less wet conditions affect the area. Areas of wet slab will remain in sheltered locations such as summit gullies and on slopes with a mainly North-West through to Easterly aspect above 850 metres. Where deeper accumulations of wet slab remain bonding will be moderate particularly on steeper slopes and gullies. The avalanche hazard will be Moderate (Category 2). Remaining cornices will be prone to collapse. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Snow above 750m on Thursday. ICING: Freezing level rising well above tops. COMMENT: Windy wet and mild conditions forecast. Hazard of falling rocks and ice. SOUTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS THU 23/1/03 It was a dry and calm day with only a dusting of snow overnight. Consolidation of recent windslab development has been good with deposits now moderately bonded. Deepest deposits can be found in sheltered locations on mainly S to W aspects above 900 metres. The avalanche hazard is Moderate (Category 2). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK FRI 24/1/03 The freezing levels will be well over the summits and this will be accompanied by moderate rainfall and gale force winds. All recent deposits will become increasingly unstable and avalanches will occur. Greatest deposits are on S to W aspects above 900 metres but cross loaded snow is present in other sheltered locations. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Thin cover from 900 metres. ICING: Nothing significant noted in Dubh Lochan, Beinn a Bhuird today. Buttresses holding snow on ledges. COMMENT: Unlikely to be an enjoyable day on the hill. CREAG MEAGAIDH AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS THU 23/1/03 Shallow accumulations of unstable windslab have formed in the tops of the most sheltered gullies on South to West aspects above 900 metres. Although these deposits are very fragile, winds have swung to the South and begun to redistribute snow onto lee slopes of a North-West to North-East aspect. Fresh windslab is only beginning to build on these latter aspects and is as yet too shallow to cause any problems. The avalanche hazard is Moderate (Category 2). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK FRI 24/1/03 The freezing level will once again rise above the summits with rain on a gale force South-West wind. Existing snow cover will start to retreat leaving the deepest deposits in gullies above 800 metres on all aspects. In these gullies snow will become wet and gradually bed down and start to melt back. Small cornices and drifts that have formed above steep North to East aspects will become increasingly unstable. Overall the avalanche hazard will be Moderate (Category 2). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Thin cover above 700 metres. The top half of easier gullies are complete. ICING: Very poor and about to get worse. COMMENT: Looks like we're heading back to grass cover once again! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------