NORTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS THU 27/2/03 It has been two weeks now since the last snow or rainfall. Even with strong Southerly winds there has been only minimal snow transport onto high North aspect slopes. In general the snowpack stability is good. The avalanche hazard is Low (Category 1). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK FRI 28/2/03 Snow tending to sleet will arrive on South-South-East winds during the forecast period. Although the deeper snowpack stability will remain good, there will be pockets of unstable new slab which will develop quickly on North aspects above 1000m. The avalanche hazard will be Considerable (Category 3). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: If you like thin, hard conditions, your hour is nigh. ICING: Although thin and patchy, the ice in some grooves is giving good climbing. COMMENT: After a two week drought, change is on the way. LOCHABER AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS THU 27/2/03 Dry conditions overnight and during Thursday have seen the snowpack gradually consolidate at all levels. Stability is generally good. Isolated surface instabilities are present and are restricted to steep N aspects, and are generally avoidable. The avalanche hazard is Low (Category 1). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK FRI 28/2/03 Snow overnight and later on Friday with a strong SSE airflow will see fresh areas of unstable snow form above 1000m. Greatest accumulations will be on sheltered steep NW through to NE aspects, notably scarp slopes and the tops of gullies. Snowpack stability will decrease in the above locations as deposits become deeper and snow turns to rain later on Friday. Below 1000m the snowpack will be thawing and wet. The avalanche hazard will be Considerable (Category 3). Any reformed cornices will become increasingly suspect. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Best cover in high N and E facing corries. ICING: Water ice remaining above 600m today (Thursday) COMMENT: Potential for a long run-out from any release or cornice collapse. GLENCOE AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS THU 27/2/03 Cooler dry conditions overnight re-froze the snowpack surface on the higher slopes. Rising daytime temperatures have now softened and moistened the snowpack at all levels Stability is generally good in most locations with only isolated surface wet snow instabilities remaining on the steepest slopes. These areas are generally avoidable. The avalanche hazard is Low (Category 1). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK FRI 28/2/03 With freezing levels remaining above the tops for the outlook period precipitation, heavy at times will fall as rain or sleet. This will saturate and reduce the snowpack particularly at lower levels. The snowpack will become soft and moist at all levels. Stability will remain good on all but the steepest slopes where wet snow instabilities will form as precipitation becomes heavier. The avalanche hazard will be Moderate (Category 2). Cornices will remain prone to collapse. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Snow above 800 metres mainly in high Northerly facing corries and gullies. ICING: Ice above 700m generally thawing. COMMENT: Hazard of falling rocks and ice with freezing levels around 1400m on Friday. Excellent skiing and boarding at Glencoe Ski Centre on Thursday with a good cover of spring snow on the upper runs. SOUTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS THU 27/2/03 The snow has gone through another rapid melt-freeze cycle leaving it firm and well bonded. The snowpack is becoming increasingly patchy especially below 900 metres. Previously sun warmed slopes tend to be icy. Cover is restricted mainly to sheltered headwalls, gullies and burns with more extensive areas on E to S aspects. The avalanche hazard is Low (Category 1). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK FRI 28/2/03 Moderate amounts of rain overnight will become heavy on Friday. This has the potential to fall as sleet or wet snow above 1000 metres. Arriving on gale force SSE winds these new deposits will rapidly accumulate in sheltered locations on NW to NE aspects above 1000 metres. This unstable windslab will be weakly bonded to the snow-ice base. The avalanche hazard will be Considerable (Category 3). At lower altitudes the snow will soften but remain stable. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Patchy cover. More extensive areas on E to S aspects. ICING: Subject to thaw conditions. COMMENT: 1400 metre freezing level on Friday. CREAG MEAGAIDH AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS THU 27/2/03 The slow thaw has continued with strong South-East winds and freezing levels just above the summits. Freeze-thaw cycle has left the snowpack generally well bonded on all aspects above 900 metres with the snowpack at lower levels softening in milder air. The avalanche hazard is Low (Category 1). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK FRI 28/2/03 There will be moderate snowfall throughout most of the forecast period with sleet or rain in afternoon. Winds will be strong and from the South-South-East forming fresh windslab on West through North to North-East aspects above 850 metres. As a hard surface layer exists at present bonding of fresh slab will be poor and triggering will be possible with low additional loads. Avalanches are also likely later in the period from natural release due to sleet or rain. The avalanche hazard will be Considerable (Category 3). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Reasonable cover in corries and most gullies. ICING: Freeze-thaw continues to provide good build up. COMMENT: Fresh unstable cornice fringes will build above steep aspects on Friday (28/2/03). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------