NORTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 18/1/04 Freezing levels held steady at about 900 metres with mixed rain and snow at that elevation. There were strong winds from the West. Above 1000 metres there has been a slight and gradual consolidation of the snowpack. There is an easy shear near the surface. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 19/1/04 Heavy rain is forecast with freezing levels going up to 2300 metres with moderate Westerly winds. Areas of poorly bonded snow will exist on all aspects above 1000 metres and avalanches will occur due to the significant warming and rain. Cornice failure will occur. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Soggy below 900 metres in thin areas, still dry layers noted above 1100 metres. ICING: A short term warming will help, followed by long term cooling. COMMENT: Rapid warming and the onset of rain are quick ways to start an avalanche in an unconsolidated snowpack. LOCHABER AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 18/1/04 Precipitation accompanied by a rising freezing level has produced new instabilities within the snowpack. Large areas of unstable snow are present on many aspects. Greatest accumulations are on gullies, scarp slopes and crag aprons above 1000m. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 19/1/04 A major thaw is expected with heavy rain at all levels. The snowpack will thaw at all levels and become increasingly unstable. Avalanches will occur on many aspects, notably on gullies, scarp slopes and crag aprons above 1000m. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Reasonable cover still above 700m on Sunday. ICING: What little ice build up there was will quickly disappear in the thaw. COMMENT: After an initial period of high instability, the snowpack will gradually consolidate later on Monday. GLENCOE AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 18/1/04 There is new wet snow above 900m with the deepest accumulations on Easterly aspects. The older snowpack has started to consolidate in the milder conditions. Unconsolidated wet snow exists on slopes and gullies of many aspects. Deep deposits of layered windslab still exist in all sheltered gullies and on slopes with a North-West through North to South-Easterly aspect mainly above 900 metres. Where this windslab lies on steeper slopes stability is poor. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 19/1/04 Rain and strong Westerly winds will affect the area, producing wet snow instabilities on most steep slopes on all aspects above 800m. Cornices will be prone to collapse and steep scarp slopes including gully headwalls will become very unstable: avalanches will occur in these regions. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Snow above 500 metres with deep drifting on many aspects above 850 metres. ICING: Thawing ice at all levels. COMMENT: Freezing level rising to well above the summits (2400m)!! Cornices will require great caution. Ridges and buttresses the safer option but approaches will need great care. SOUTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 18/1/04 The rising freezing level reached 900 metres by midday. Above this altitude moderate snowfall and drifting on mainly W winds has led to new windslab build up on NE to SE aspects. Stability was poor particularly where it overlay harder snow. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 19/1/04 The freezing level will continue to rise and snowfall will turn to rain. Overnight stability will be very poor. By morning moderately to weakly bonded snow will still be found mainly on N through E to SE aspects above 900 metres where accumulations have depth. The avalanche hazard will be Considerable (Category 3) and avalanches are likely. Remaining cornices will be highly unstable. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Snow loss likely to be significant. ICING: Will be subject to thaw conditions. COMMENT: Not likely to be an inspiring day on the hill! CREAG MEAGAIDH AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 18/1/04 The rapid onset of milder temperatures - with snow turning to rain at all levels - has induced near-surface and deeper instabilities on all steep North through East to South-East aspects above 800 metres. Many cornices above these slopes are large and prone to collapse. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 19/1/04 Sustained very mild temperatures and heavy rain will combine to produce poor stability on steep North through East to South- East aspects above 800 metres, where avalanches are likely. All cornices will become thoroughly wet and prone to collapse. The avalanche hazard will be Considerable (Category 3). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Wet snow to summit level. Effective snowline on Sunday was 450m which will rise significantly during Monday. ICING: Rapid thaw in progress. Falling ice a consideration in present conditions. COMMENT: Recent cold weather has weakened some of the upper layers of the snowpack, which will become more of a problem in the forecasted very mild, wet weather. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------