NORTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 1/2/04 There has been another significant change in wind direction and snow transport. Soft slab has built rapidly on North and East aspects and where sampled at 1100 metres on a North-East aspect avalanche debris and activity was noted. The mid-pack is still cold (-4) and 20 to 30 centimetres down from surface there is a steep temperature gradient. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 2/2/04 Due to a warm South-West flow the freezing level will go above 1245 metres with rain. The new slab on North and East aspects will be unstable and areas of dry snowpack with firm layers over soft will also be unstable. Cornices will be weak. Avalanches are likely on nearly all aspects above 900 metres, particularly steep unsupported terrain. The avalanche hazard will be Considerable (Category 3). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Overall cover looks reasonable today. ICING: Less ice than usual for the time of year. COMMENT: Timing of the warming cycle will be critical to period of greatest instability. LOCHABER AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 1/2/04 Fresh overnight snow and strong SW winds have been replaced by warmer temperatures during today. Areas of fresh unstable windslab have formed mainly on North, North-East and East aspects above 1000m. Warmer temperatures have added to the instabilities in these areas. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 2/2/04 After a warm dry evening, rain at all levels will spread across the area during Monday morning. The snowpack will become wet and increasingly unstable. Wet snow avalanches will occur mainly on slopes and gullies with a North, North-East, East and South-East aspect above 900m. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4). Cornices will become prone to collapse. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Snow gradually becoming wet at all levels during Sunday. ICING: Freezing level rising above the summits for a time. COMMENT: Strong winds expected to ease during Monday. LOCHABER AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 1/2/04 Fresh overnight snow and strong SW winds have been replaced by warmer temperatures during today. Areas of fresh unstable windslab have formed mainly on North, North-East and East aspects above 1000m. Warmer temperatures have added to the instabilities in these areas. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 2/2/04 After a warm dry evening, rain at all levels will spread across the area during Monday morning. The snowpack will become wet and increasingly unstable. Wet snow avalanches will occur mainly on slopes and gullies with a North, North-East, East and South-East aspect above 900m. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4). Cornices will become prone to collapse. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Snow gradually becoming wet at all levels during Sunday. ICING: Freezing level rising above the summits for a time. COMMENT: Strong winds expected to ease during Monday. GLENCOE AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 1/2/04 Moderate amounts of new snow fell this morning at all levels. Strong winds variable initially but becoming South-Westerly later have formed unstable accumulations of windslab on steep slopes mainly above 900 metres. Greatest accumulations are in sheltered gullies, hollows and on slopes with a North to South- Easterly aspect. Field tests of these accumulations today gave clean easy shears on the older snow ice layer. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3) AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 2/2/04 Milder conditions with freezing levels rising well above the summits and moderate rain during Monday will saturate and reduce the snowpack. Wet snow instabilities will exist on many steep slopes and gullies where deep accumulations of recent snow exist. Sheltered gullies and hollows of all aspects and slopes with a North through East to Southerly aspect above 800 metres will be particularly affected. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4) Avalanches and cornice collapse will occur. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Snow above 500 metres ICING: Ice above 500 metres COMMENT: Poor outlook, windy mild and wet. SOUTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 1/2/04 Snow showers have formed soft unstable windslab in various sheltered locations but mainly on N to E aspects where release was achieved easily. Recent deposits that exist on E through S to SW aspects above 800 metres are demonstrating variable degrees of stability with some deposits in steeper sheltered locations remaining layered and moderately to weakly bonded. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 2/2/04 It will become milder overnight with the freezing level rising to 1800 metres on Monday with moderate rainfall forecast. Recent deposits that exist on N through E to S and SW aspects above 800 metres will become increasingly unstable as the thaw sets in and avalanches will occur on steeper terrain. Cornice collapse will threaten slopes beneath. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Linked ski touring possible. ICING: Despite recent melt freeze Creagan a Choire Etchachan has very little ice on it. COMMENT: Unlikely to be a pleasant day on Monday! CREAG MEAGAIDH AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS SUN 1/2/04 Sunday saw the beginning of the transition to milder conditions. Early snow showers on moderate South-West winds brought about new slab development on all North-East to East aspects, with thin fresh snow covering most other locations. A rise in temperature accompanied by a little rain and sun resulted in some sluffing on very steep ground of various aspects below 700 metres. Deeper, poorly stabilised slab has formed above this altitude and stability continues to decline as the freezing level rises. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK MON 2/2/04 More very mild weather with rain at all levels on Monday will initiate a period of very poor stability. Loose snow avalanches will occur on steep slopes of most aspects, as will large wet slab events on North to East-facing aspects above 800 metres. Cornices overhang many of these slopes and they will become wet and very unstable. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Snow at all levels on Sunday. Severe depletion expected over the next 36 hours. ICING: A big meltdown in prospect. COMMENT: In one way or another, Monday looks like being a real 'bummer' in the mountains. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------