NORTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS TUE 10/2/04 There has been rain at all levels on very strong, mild Westerly winds. Where sampled at 1010 metres on a North-East aspect the snowpack consists of a moist layer with slush and alternating dry layers beneath and is reasonably well bonded. However remaining cornices and areas of steep soft snow mainly on East to South aspects show signs of instability. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK WED 11/2/04 Rain from the North-West will clear overnight to leave a fine dry day with summit temperatures above zero. The snow pack will continue to thaw improving general stability. Any remaining large areas of steep soft snow will have some instability mainly on East to South aspects above 950 metres and surviving cornices will be unstable. The avalanche hazard will be Moderate (Category 2). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Skiable patches on the plateau and soft spring snow in the ski area. ICING: A bit lean on Northerly aspects but thicker and thawing on Southerly. COMMENT: A deja vu weather pattern! LOCHABER AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS TUE 10/2/04 Thaw conditions with freezing levels above the summits have greatly reduced the snowpack. Localised wet snow instabilities are present on steep North-East through East to South-East aspects. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). Elsewhere the snowpack is wet and generally stable. AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK WED 11/2/04 Slightly cooler conditions will further stabilise the remaining snowpack. Localised wet snow instabilities will be restricted to the steepest slopes with a North-East through East to South-East aspect. The avalanche hazard will be Moderate (Category 2). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Main snow cover restricted to North and East facing corries above 900 metres. ICING: Thin and thawing. COMMENT: Danger of falling ice and rocks in the present conditions. GLENCOE AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS TUE 10/2/04 Mild conditions today with moderate rain have saturated the snowpack. Wet snow instabilities exist where deeper accumulations of wet slab lie on steep slopes with a North through East to South-Easterly aspect and in sheltered summit gullies mainly above 900 metres. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). Cornice triggered debris noted below North-Easterly aspects at 1000 metres today. AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK WED 11/2/04 Very mild and dry conditions with freezing levels around 2300 metres will affect the area. Stability of much of the snowpack will improve with the drier conditions forecast. Surface wet snow instabilities will remain on the steepest North through East to South-East slopes and sheltered summit gullies mainly above 950 metres. Some of these areas will remain threatened by potentially weak cornices. The avalanche hazard will be Considerable (Category 3). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Mainly in sheltered corries and gullies above 850 metres. ICING: Thawing all levels with very mild outlook. COMMENT: Dry and mild for the next few days. SOUTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS TUE 10/2/04 Thaw conditions have become established with significant snow loss at all levels. The majority of the snow is thawing but remains stable. On steeper slopes in mainly sheltered locations on N through E to S aspects surface layers are moderately to weakly bonded. Cornices are slumping badly. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK WED 11/2/04 Thaw conditions will continue with temperatures of plus 5 degrees centigrade expected at 930 metres. It will remain dry with a less rapid thaw rate expected. The majority of the remaining snow will be soft but stable. Some wet surface layer instability will persist in steeper sheltered locations on mainly N through E to S aspects above 900 metres. Cornice collapse and falling ice and rocks will continue to present a hazard as will snow bridge collapse over fast flowing burns. The avalanche hazard will be Moderate (Category 2). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Significant snow loss has occurred. Broken cover even at summit level. ICING: Buttresses blackening, ice and turf softening. COMMENT: Slumping cornices worth watching. CREAG MEAGAIDH AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS TUE 10/2/04 Mild temperatures and light rain initiated an avalanche cycle early in the period: debris was noted from four avalanches on a steep North-East aspect at 800 metres. Some wet sluffing was also noted on slopes of other aspects. The snowpack is moist and a little consolidation is now evident. Many cornices are wet and prone to collapse. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK WED 11/2/04 Mild conditions, with a little early light rain, will prevail overnight and during Wednesday. The snowpack will remain moist and demonstrate only marginal stabilisation. The cornices that exist over North through East to South aspects will be thoroughly wet, and in the event of collapse will add a high additional load to the slopes below. The avalanche hazard will remain Considerable (Category 3). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Wet snow at all elevations. Larger patches above 500m but depleting rapidly in thaw conditions. ICING: Thawing at all levels on Tuesday. COMMENT: Not expected to be "suitable" for winter sport for the next few days! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------