NORTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS WED 29-12-99 Stability of the snowpack is mainly fair to good but isolated pockets of instability exist in the form of a soft slab on crust. In an East aspect of Coire an Sneachda, the slab failed easily on a shovel test but produced no results by rutschblock. The distribution of instability is highly variable. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK THU 30-12-99 Rising freezing level, increasing wind and rain to high elevation indicates an increase in avalanche hazard. Weather forecast values will produce widespread avalanche activity and natural cornice failure on most slope aspects. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Foot penetration up to 20cm in lee elevations from 700-900 metres. Snow depth from 3-4 metres on lee slopes above 1000 metres. ICING: Scouring has iced up low angle windward terrain. COMMENT: The amount of slope testing by climbing parties indicates a higher degree of stability than shown by field test. However, the next 24 hours will see widespread avalanches. LOCHABER AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS WED 29/12/99 Continuing colder temperatures and light snow showers have had little effect on the existing snowpack. Large areas of soft unconsolidated snow are present in many corries and gullies. Areas of unstable slab are also present, greatest accumulations being at the tops of gullies and on scarp slopes with a N through E to SE aspect. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK THU 30/12/99 A thaw is expected overnight with a period of heavy rain to the summits. By Thursday morning, large areas of unstable wet snow will be present on many aspects. Wet snow avalanches will occur on many steep slopes, particularly those slopes with an aspect of N through E to SE. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4). During Thursday afternoon the snowpack will begin to stabilise as the freezing level drops. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Snow level will rise dramatically overnight. ICING: Freezing level rising to the summits overnight and lowering again during Thursday afternoon COMMENT: Strong winds easing during Thursday. GLENCOE AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS WED 29/12/99 Recent snow has accumulated above 300m with deep drifting in sheltered locations.The snowpack is generally soft at all levels but where exposed to the wind a firm icy crust has formed. Areas of deep windslab exist on steep slopes with a NE through to SE aspect and in all sheltered gullies above 800m. In these areas the avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3). Cornice triggered avalanche debris observed Stob Coire nan Lochan AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK THU 30/12/99 Gale force S.W. winds with sleet and snow overnight turning to heavy rain at all levels later. The avalanche hazard will High (Category 4) as the snowpack becomes saturated with the heavy rain. Avalanches will occur in all sheltered gullies and on slopes with a N through to SE aspect above 800m. Cornices will collapse. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Snow above 300m. ICING: Ice above 500m. COMMENT: Wet and windy conditions initially. Hazard of falling rocks and ice. SOUTHERN CAIRNGORMS AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS WED 29/12/99 Drifting has continued to maintain areas of unstable windslab primarily in sheltered areas on NE through to SE aspects above 850 m. In these locations the snowpack was moderately to weakly bonded and the avalanche hazard Considerable (Category 3). Elsewhere exposed slopes were scoured and icy. AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK THU 30/12/99 After some overnight snow thaw conditions will set in with the freezing levels above the tops and heavy rain. Recent snow and cornices on all aspects will become unstable and avalanches will occur. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4). CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: On all aspects exposed slopes have suffered some scouring. ICING: Will improve after brief thaw. COMMENT: Freezing levels will be around 1200m dropping later to 750m. CREAG MEAGAIDH AVALANCHE HAZARD 1500 HRS WED 29/12/99 Light NW winds have continued to blow more snow onto already existing deposits of unstable windslab on N through E to S aspects above 800m. Temperatures have remained well below freezing at higher levels resulting in little consolidation of the existing snowpack. Unstable cornices are continuing to build above N through E to S aspects. The avalanche hazard is Considerable (Category 3) in the above mentioned areas. AVALANCHE HAZARD OUTLOOK THU 30/12/99 Heavy overnight snow will be followed by milder temperatures and heavy rain tomorrow (Thursday) on storm force SW becoming NW winds. A period of high instability will result as the temperatures rise and wet snow avalanches will occur on N through E to S aspects above 750m. The avalanche hazard will be High (Category 4) in these areas. Cornices will be prone to collapse. CLIMBING CONDITIONS SNOW DISTRIBUTION: Good cover at all levels. ICING: None observed due to large amount of snow on cliffs. COMMENT: Cornice collapse may trigger avalanches - beware of long debris run-out zones. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------